As AI threatens white-collar jobs, Washington trade schools are booming

Brendan Hancock is about to graduate for the second time. His English degree from a traditional four-year college didn’t turn into the stable career he was looking for, so he decided to start over at the Northwest Washington Electrical Industry Joint Apprenticeship and Training Committee (NWEJATC) in Mount Vernon. This time around, he gets paid while studying, and is guaranteed a job when he graduates.

“Going back to university when I had already been to university and not gotten a career out of it wasn't very appealing," Hancock said. "I don't think I've ever seen a job ad that said English degree required.”

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Hancock is one of many job seekers turning to the skilled trades in search of stability at a time of uncertainty in the white-collar labor market. Apprenticeship programs in Washington state have been growing steadily over the past decade, as have pre-apprenticeship tracks in Seattle Public Schools.

It’s a trend that was already underway due to rising college costs, the lingering effects of Covid, and evolving attitudes toward the trades. Now, fears of AI eliminating white-collar jobs are supercharging the shift.

“ I think we're actually probably on par for this to be a record-breaking year,” said Ryan Bradt, training director at the Puget Sound Electrical JACT. “We may hit 2,700, 2,800 applications this year.”

The Washington State Department of Labor and Industries had more than 15,900 apprentices pursing careers in the skilled trades last year, up from 8,900 in 2014. A spokesperson for the department said state and federal funding have helped the programs grow to meet demand.

Most apprenticeship programs only accept applicants when they can guarantee a job after graduating, so the numbers hew to demand in the job market.

At the high school level, interest in a trade-school track is growing and expanding to include students of more diverse backgrounds. The Seattle Public Schools pre-apprenticeship program, which prepares students to go into the building trades, is fully subscribed at its North Seattle and South Seattle locations, according to coordinator Jay Connolly. The program is adding a West Seattle arm to meet demand.

“As the programs become more popular, I'm getting more middle-class kids with white-collar parents,” Connolly said. “Who are asking a lot of questions like, is this smart or really want me to understand that their child would be perfectly capable of succeeding in a four-year college.”

That reticence speaks to a stigma that trade schools developed in the 1990s and early 2000s when high schools were encouraged to ensure all students received a college preparatory education. The lack of exposure is one factor that led to a shortage of tradespeople needed today to replace an aging workforce.

But the stigma is starting to wear off as the cost of college tuition rises, and the certainty that a four-year degree will lead to a stable job diminishes.

Hancock wasn’t the only student at the Mount Vernon electrician school who already earned a bachelor’s degree.

“ I was just told that's what I was supposed to do, and if I did that, it would lead to a good job,” said Chris Reed. “But I came out of college right before the Great Recession, and me and pretty much everybody I knew didn't have jobs when we got out of college.”

The pandemic also shifted the dynamics. Trade schools often opened up to in-person learning while universities and colleges were still holding class online.

That influenced Henry Jones, another student at the electrician school.

“ Covid definitely kicked me in one direction,” Jones said. “I was ready to apply to a bunch of universities, but with the online learning, it just doesn't fit my style.”

Today, as he nears the end of the program, Jones feels good about his choice.

“ AI is threatening a lot of white-collar positions and a lot of my friends who knew like, ‘Oh yeah, I definitely can be a programmer,’ are baristas now,” he said.