He may be a longshot, but Robert F. Kennedy Jr. could impact the election
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. made headlines earlier this month when he confirmed a report that he once had a parasitic worm in his brain. But President Joe Biden and former president Donald Trump were already paying attention to the independent candidate before he stole the news cycle.
Biden can tout the endorsements of more than a dozen Kennedy family members, and Trump attacked Kennedy as a "Democrat Plant" on social media. That attention is just one sign that his candidacy could have a real impact on this year's election.
It's still early, but when pollsters include Kennedy in presidential surveys, he consistently earns around 10% of the vote. While those may not be winning numbers, they certainly can impact the outcome of the election that is likely to be won on the margins.
What history can teach us
Barbara Perry is a presidential historian at the University of Virginia's Miller Center and has written several books about the Kennedys.
When it comes to RFK Jr., Perry says his name is one of his biggest selling points.
"We always talk about name recognition for candidates. Do they have it or not? But he has one of the the most important names of a political dynasty in this country, along with the Adamses and the Roosevelts and the Bushes. And for some, it's still a golden name," Perry said.
And while the Kennedy dynasty has been more associated with progressive politics, Kennedy's affiliation with vaccine conspiracies has widened his appeal to a broader audience, and alienated him from some of his inherited base.
Bernard Tamas is an expert on U.S. third parties. He says that RFK Jr.'s support is driven by general dissatisfaction with the status quo, and the weight of his name.
"But he's taking the anti-vaxxer position, which doesn't really work for progressives. He's avoiding the Gaza issue, and has been very pro-Israel. It's unlikely that support there is going to sustain itself. But again, and I really want to emphasize this, there is no way to know at this point [which candidate] he's going to harm more."
The third party effect
Throughout his campaign, Kennedy hasn't given clear answers on many of his stances. Tamas says that approach is unusual, even for a third party candidate.
"I mean, the successful ones have used a strategy referred to as 'sting like a bee.' The idea is you tap into that anger with some forms of galvanizing issues, something that really energized them. And you use that to distinguish yourself from the major parties and to attack them and cause them pain," Tamas said.
That pain would lead to pressure for the major parties to co-opt the issues that the third party candidate is presenting, he explained.
"And so once like the bee, they sting, they have a tendency then to die. But the goal of actually influencing policy in America is achieved. And this we've seen repeatedly in American history."
When it comes to RFK Jr., Tamas says there doesn't seem to be a cohesive strategy surrounding the issues he discusses on the campaign trail.
"We're seeing a group of issues that don't necessarily seem to be tapping into any particular group and almost seem self-contradictory. I mean, he is very much anti-science when it comes to vaccines, but very much pro-science when it comes to climate change. And this is going to, I suspect, going to be a real problem as he moves forward."
How does RFK's popularity in November impact the odds for Biden and Trump? Listen to Consider This to hear what the experts are saying.
This episode was produced by Connor Donevan. It was edited by Courtney Dorning. Our executive producer is Sami Yenigun.
