In battleground states, it's not just about winning — but also losing by less

In a small town less than an hour outside of Milwaukee, Democratic volunteers are stuffing pamphlets into plastic baggies that canvassers will take door knocking around the neighborhood.

The town of Elkhorn is in Walworth County, a Republican stronghold. But Democrats are trying to make some inroads here.

“Our goal in this office is to move the needle,” said Ellen Holly, a former chairperson of the Walworth County Democrats.

In a state where every vote matters, both Democratic and Republican campaigns are not only trying to win in counties where they’re strongest, they’re also trying to lose by less in places where votes for their candidate are harder to find.

Here’s how the math works

In many ways, “lose by less” has become the key term in the presidential campaign, according to Anthony Chergosky, who teaches political science at the University of Wisconsin-La Crosse.

“Because Wisconsin elections are so competitive and so closely decided, the parties understand that any little gain anywhere could make the difference,” he said.

In Walworth County, Holly said the Wisconsin Democrats have a specific goal.

“I think the state figured out if we can pull 42%, then the state is good … everything we do here helps,” she said.

In 2020, President Biden won Wisconsin by just over 20,000 votes. Holly said that’s because of the work of places like the Elkhorn Democrats’ office.

“I can't say that it was just because of us, but if we did nothing, he would not have won,” she said.

So what does the strategy look like in practice? For one, door knocking.

Barb Biggler and Margie Black are Democratic Party volunteers who live in Walworth County. As they were walking through a neighborhood where Trump signs fill the lawns, Biggler said she doesn’t think of it as “enemy territory.”

“I kinda don’t like to think about the ‘war’ and the ‘battle’ and that rough language,” she said. “It kinda scares me, so I don’t really want to be frightened by our own country.”

Many voters aren’t home when Biggler and Black knock. When they do find one who’s willing to talk, they don’t go in with a hard sales pitch. Instead, they lead with: “What are the issues important to you?”

They said in Walworth County they sometimes meet “quiet Harris voters” — people who promise to support the Democrat but don’t want to put a sign on their lawn.

That’s the mirror image of how Denise Salamone feels. She’s a Trump voter in a wealthy Democratic area on the edge of Milwaukee.

“I’ll use the example of when Hillary and Bernie were running against each other in the primary, there were all Bernie signs in my neighborhood,” she said. “I don’t put up a sign.”

She’s sitting in the North Shore GOP Trump campaign office in Milwaukee, a Democratic stronghold. At the campaign office, Republicans were hosting a canned food drive Salamone just donated to. They call the event “Can Kamala.”

The cans will go to a food bank where Rob Mulcahy volunteers. He's also on the executive committee for the Republican Party in Milwaukee County. And, like the Democrats canvassing in Walworth County, he refuses to think of this blue zone as hostile.

“It is not enemy territory for me. I have lived there my entire life. I do have the courage to put yard signs up,” he said. “In the last election, I put up every Republican candidate, and I intend to do so again this year.”

Hilario Deleon — the chairman of the Republican Party of Milwaukee County — said many GOP volunteers lead with the economy when they go door knocking.

“We talk about economics, we talk about crime. We talk about actual issues that people care about,” he said. “You know, ‘Are you better off now than you were four years ago?’”

And in Milwaukee, Republicans have their own “lose by less” goal they’d like to hit.

“If we get more than 35%, even 38%, that is a win,” Deleon said. “The rest of the state will help carry us over the finish line.”

Who is winning the ground game?

The Democrats have been bragging about their rural ground game.

They send out updates with the number of offices they’ve opened, doors they’ve knocked, volunteers they’ve recruited, and say the Trump campaign has not caught up.

According to the latest campaign finance reports the parties file with the state, Wisconsin Democrats have out-raised Republicans 4-to-1 this year — nearly $20 million for the Democrats and close to $5 million for the GOP.

But Deleon said even if Democrats have more money to spend, he doesn’t agree with the Democrats that they are winning the ground game.

“The Republican Party isn’t the only group out here door knocking for President Trump. There’s tons of organizations that are coming in, third-party organizations that are coming into the state and investing millions of dollars in advertising and door knocking,” he said.

Back in Walworth County, Democrats Barb Biggler and Margie Black have just knocked on a door and met an 18-year-old.

He registered to vote at his high school, but isn’t exactly sure where or how to do it.

“There’s a lot to be said for just being kind,” Black said. “He was nervous about this whole operation and I told him I still remember the first time I voted and it was a big deal — and that was a really long time ago.”

Biggler said it’s exciting to be a part of this.

“I think that when we show up, I’d like to believe that it shows value and importance to voting,” she said. “Otherwise these strangers wouldn’t show up at your door handing you materials.”