We are really good at predicting the weather, actually
By: Clare McGrane and Teo Popescu
2:30 p.m. on Thursday, January 29, 2026
Winter storms this week have shattered records, taken lives, and forced people to hunker down at home from Texas to Maine. The ability to forecast weather this severe days in advance helps people prepare, and get to safety when they can. Today's detailed and precise forecast models are only possible because of data — data that meteorologists have gathered and analyzed for decades with increasingly vast reach and sophisticated technology.
Two storms in Washington state, 62 years apart, show how much better weather predictions have gotten over time — and the lives saved as a result.
Sources:
- Archival copies of the Seattle Post-Intelligencer on October 12 and October 13,1962
- Why an ‘exact date’ weather forecast headline isn’t what it seems, Met Office of the United Kingdom,2023
- How Reliable Are Weather Forecasts?, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
- Operational Weather Forecasting, Peter Michael Inness and Steve Dorling,2013
- A Deadly Wind: The 1962 Columbus Day Storm, John Dodge,2018
- Interview with Reid Wolcott, warning coordination meteorologist at the National Weather Service, Seattle
- Interview with Ted Buehner (a.k.a. Tornado Ted), meteorologist at the National Weather Service (retired)
- Interview with Cliff Mass, meteorologist and forecasting researcher at the University of Washington
- National Weather Service Bomb Cyclone Warnings, Seattle,2024
Credits
Story: Clare McGrane and Teo Popescu
Design: Teo Popescu
Editor: Phyllis Fletcher
Product Manager: Lisa Wang
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