Can fall 2025 get Washington out of its dry streak?

While many start their calendars in January, weather nerds and climatologists consider October the start of the "water year." That's when they start measuring water conditions — rainfall, snowpack, and basin levels — over 12 months.

As Washington approaches the end of the current water year, one thing is certain: It's dry out there, and it will take a lot of rain to turn things around.

"Particularly this spring and summer have been dry," Washington state Deputy Climatologist Karin Bumbaco told KUOW. "So, average statewide, April through July precipitation ranked as the third driest on record, with only 41% of normal precipitation. That's pretty remarkable."

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Don't let the summer weather fool you, with no temperatures above 100 and few heatwaves. Seattle only had four days with above-90 degree temps, which falls short of the hotter summers on record. (There were 13 days above 90 degrees in 2022, 12 in 2015, and 11 in 2018).

Still, Bumbaco notes that ever since October 2024, the start of the current water year, the region has had below-normal rainfall.

• Since October 2024, Seattle is behind 8.5 inches of rain (6 inches since January 2025).
• Other parts of the state are worse. For example, the Olympic Mountains are behind between 15-20 inches of rain.
• There have been three drought emergencies in Washington state in as many years.

East of the Cascade Mountains, the largely agricultural Yakima Basin is at its lowest levels since records started in 1971.

"This is worrying, because it means that even a normal winter, or an above normal winter coming up, won't be enough to make up those deficits that we've seen in the last three years," Bumbaco said.

Can La Niña help?

Looking ahead, there will be a La Niña fall and winter 2025. For Washington state, that generally implies cooler temps and heavy rain. Though, Bumbaco said it will be a "weak" La Niña.

The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center expects rainfall to lean above normal in the coming months. But despite the La Niña status, it also expects above-normal temps.

"The forecasts for earlier in the fall, like September through January, has had higher odds of above normal precipitation, but after that, for the rest of the winter, we're uncertain at this time," Bumbaco said.

Bumbaco adds that there was a La Niña last year, however "our expectations of that didn't necessarily pan out. Last spring, our statewide snowpack was only 87% of median."

Mountain snowpack in spring is important, as it is the region's water supply through the summer.