How warm will Washington state get during summer 2024?

Weather forecasters have long been talking about a warmer-than-normal summer 2024 in Washington state, but as the season gets closer, it appears the region may only get slightly warmer than average.

"A summer that's maybe a degree or two on the warm side, in the mean (average), nothing extreme," Washington State Climatologist Nick Bond told KUOW's Angela King. "But, certainly, there is the potential for heat waves in there. And we'll just have to see how those play out."

RELATED: Majority of Seattle-area homes have AC for the first time

So, no heat domes like the scorcher in 2021 are likely; however, Bond noted, "By the middle of the century, we may get a heatwave like that every five or 10 years."

For the rest of May through July, Western Washington will lean toward warmer-than-normal temperatures, according to the National Weather Service. Eastern Washington will be much warmer. Below average precipitation is also expected across the state. A drought emergency was declared for all of Washington in April.

There are a few things to know about summer 2024 in Washington state, and about changes to local weather patterns in the months ahead.

RELATED: Seattle stayed cool in April while the planet felt record heat

El Niño is transitioning into La Niña right now

"We're transitioning from El Niño to La Niña," Bond said. "And in those summers, there's a lot of variability from case to case, but they tend to be just a bit cooler and a maybe a little bit wetter."

There may also be "lower fire acreage" — except in the northwest part of the state.

Here's more of what Bond had to say about the coming summer:

Expect overnight temperatures around Washington to be on the warm side

"We definitely see, in terms of the long climate trends, more systematic increase in the nighttime temperatures than in the daytime temperatures. So, my expectation is this summer, we'll be seeing more of those nights that are still not that bad, but creeping into the 60s for the minimum temperatures, which historically is on the high side. ... We are seeing warmer nights and no reason why this summer won't have those."

Expect dry conditions during summer 2024

"Our snowpack is definitely lower than normal. With the warm weather on our way, too, there's going to be kind of an early start to the landscape drying out. But on the other hand, maybe not an extreme summer in any way. ... What we have to wait and see about is the wind storms that are always accompanying really big (wild)fires. We can't forecast those ahead of time."

What can we learn if winter 2024 is yet another La Niña?

"In the next month or two, we'll have a much better idea of whether we'll have a La Niña winter next winter. I think it's highly likely. ... Of the last five winters, four of them have been La Niña winters, which has happened in the past, but only twice in the last 57 years or so."

RELATED: Summer 2024 drought will plague farmers in parts of Washington

"La Niñas tend to be good for our environment, and not just the snowpack, but there's cooler ocean temperatures along our coasts that are good for salmon and so forth. Maybe there's more chances in some watersheds for flooding, so that's not such a great thing. But to me, it's more curiosity about, 'Is this a sign of something that's changing?' For the most part, with climate change, we think it's more temperatures than weather patterns, that certainly that we've seen change so far. But is this a sign of other things that are going on? And we don't know all the answers."

KUOW's Dyer Oxley contributed to this post.